The Post COVID world



The COVID-19 Game-Changer

By now it is pretty clear that Covid 19 is a black swan (Or a black bat!) moment. The only person to not recognize this global pandemic is your nitpicking spell checker!
An ir-retractable line has been drawn in the annals of world history. We have clearly woken up to our own vulnerability. We will fondly reminisce the good old days of globalization. As long as Chen assembled your computer in Guangzhou and Vijay provided remote tech support from Bangalore, you cherished the global village. Globalization never had to contend to the fact that one’s eating habit in Asia would endanger another in Europe. As long as the virus remained in the omnipresent CPU, it was a technical problem. When it crawled out to our very being, it became an insidious pandemic that was more deadlier than a war and the world was never the same thereafter!

The Seen and the unseen
To be clear, Corona virus was not the first to have had pan-world impact and it won’t be the last either. However, this ubiquitous virus is extremely non-lethal and unremarkable and that’s precisely why it has become dangerous.. This is akin to an associate who is not incompetent but not effective either. This undesired optimum balance is enough to drag down the productivity of the entire team! In that sense, it does get a 5* rating by the makers of the world! To be sure Corona is here to stay just like HIV, Polio, Cholera. Corona and mankind will eventually figure out a way to co-exist after a second wave.

As we begin to pick up pieces and move on, the new world order will seek to re-boot and re-draw a new normal. De-globalization is bound to be accelerated as countries move inward in search of self-sufficiency. Ironically digitization will spur de-globalization. Many economic entities will try to bring production and supply lines closer to end consumers. Education, medicine and the media industry will go online. Governments, the world over, will set new rules of engagement that cloak distrust and control as self-sufficiency. Minimalism may take over materialism as we re-assess our needs and desires. The digital engine would provide a greater thrust on services and trivialize material goods. A positive outcome would be re-allocating budgets to healthcare, education and hospital infrastructure and potentially move away from defense spend. Insurance companies will deal with new divisions that redefine –‘an act of god’. A surge in new insurance programs could see people meandering towards risk averse investments and enlightened risk coverage programs. Science will gain, as more dollars will be spent on the elusive vaccination and in search of other panacea. New words such as pandemic supplies, thermal imaging,  temperature screening will enter our lexicon. As the magnitude of paranoia increases, our health certificate will be as important as our college certificate.

The virus will add to the long list of existing bias that is already infected with racism, casteism, regionalism and bigotry. The immigration officials and customs agents would now be scouting for the invisible virus. Travel will be more tedious and onerous than ever before. Social globalization will be greatly impacted pending a global vaccination program.

As optimists, we can believe that as the pandemic develops, its relative impact on the economy will decline. It may actually prove beneficial: the growth rate will slow down, but it will be a healthier growth. The mother nature checks our own growth fetish and admonishes us for the precocious behavior. It reminds us of her extraordinary fortitude. As a Greek philosopher said, it is not our task to predict the future, but to be well prepared for it.


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